After a bumpy opening day, the Force has thrown its weight behind Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu.
On Friday, Jon Favreau‘s feature film adaptation of his hit Disney+ series appeared at risk of scoring the lowest box office opening of any title in the storied Star Wars franchise since Disney bought Lucasfilm in 2012.
But all bets were off when the movie snagged a franchise-best audience score of 89 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and equally strong exit scores on PostTrak, especially among youngsters as Baby Yoda, aka Grogu, made the leap to the big screen. Disney insiders believe Mando could become the most family friendly film of any title in the iconic series, at least in modern times.
Now it has a fighting chance of matching or besting the dismal debut of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the current record-holder for the lowest opener in the Disney era. Solo, which was expected to rake in north of $300 million in its worldwide launch, finished Memorial Day weekend with a worldwide total of $165 million, including $103 million for the four-day holiday in North America after costing a whopping $275 million or more to produce before marketing. The film lost tens of millions of dollars. Mandalorian and Grogu‘s net budget, albeit not cheap, was a far more modest $165 million.
Still, Disney and Lucasfilm executives were no doubt on pins and needles when Mando topped Friday’s domestic box office chart with a worrisome, series-low $33 million from 4,300 theaters, behind the $35.4 million earned by Solo on its opening day, not adjusted for inflation.
The big wild card was walk-up business on Saturday and Sunday. That is when families, who are notoriously hard to track, came into play. Walk-up business was indeed strong on Saturday, with Mando earning more than Solo.
Hence, the studio said Sunday that the film was opening well ahead of expectations domestically with an estimated four-day haul of $102 million — emphasis on estimated — and $63 million overseas for a global start of $165 million.
However, the four-day estimate was lowered to $100 million on Monday, but that dolllar figure could change again in either direction depending on Monday traffic. Disney is waiting until Tuesday to provide any further details until Tuesday when it has a final numbers.
The pic is playing across all age groups, including the elusive 55 and older crowd, while the gender split so far is 67 male and 33 percent female. Kids, especially boys under the age of 13, are going nuts for the film, giving it an A CinemaScore and 5/5 stars on exit polling service PostTrak. Parents gave it 5/5 stars as well. General audiences bestowed the film with an A- CinemaScore and a stellar 4.5/5 stars on PostTrak. Reviewers aren’t as enthusiastic, although the critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes had risen several points by Friday morning to 64 percent before dropping to 62 percent. Solo fared better with critics at 69 percent but was slapped with a dreadful 63 percent audience score on its way to topping out at $393.2 million globally.
Disney believes Mandalorian will enjoy long legs thanks to the audience scores, similar to recent hits including Project Hail Mary, Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2. While mega-openings are few and far between in the post-pandemic era, movies that work are holding in longer. And Mando is playing in all premium formats, which are accounting for 53 percent of global ticket sales, and is booked in Imax for three full weekends. So far, Imax is accounting for 15 percent of all PLF tickets sales, or $24.4 million for the four days, it’s third-best showing ever for Memorial Day.
Overseas, the movie opened in every major market timed to its North American debut save for South Korea. Good weather in the U.K., a stronghold for the franchise, and other parts of Europe dampened ticket sales as people rushed to spend time outside following days of cloudy skies and rain, but Disney expects any deficit to be rectified in the days to come.
The new tentpole, which marks the first Star Wars film to play in theaters in seven years, continues the story of The Mandalorian, Favreau’s series that helped launch Disney+ and introduced the world to Baby Yoda, who became a beacon of hope just before the pandemic struck and a merchandising breadwinner worth north of $1 billion.
Heading into the weekend, tracking services showed Mandalorian and Grogu opening to roughly $82 million at the domestic box office for the four days, while some exhibitors saw it coming in as high as $95 million or as low as $70 million.
By Saturday morning, Disney insiders said the movie was on course to earn a better-than-expected $92 million to $96 million for the four-day holiday weekend, including somewhere in the $77 million range for the three days. Rival studios were more bullish than Disney in predicting a four-day domestic opening of $95 million to $100 million for Mandalorian.
Disney continues to point out that Mando began its life on the small screen, so it is an entirely different proposition from previous titles in the Star Wars pantheon, and introduces new characters not tied to the saga movies or stand-alone features. The studio says the movie will drive significant value across the broader Disney ecosystem, including consumer products and Disney+. The Mandalorian is the most-watched original series in the history of the service, with more than 1.3 billion hours streamed globally. Star Wars attractions at Disney’s parks are also in on the action, including a new Mandalorian and Grogu mission within Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run that debuted day-and-date with the film, a first-ever for the company. There is also a major integration with Fortnite.
The movie sees Pedro Pascal return as the Mandalorian, a bounty hunter also known as Din Djarin, who is charged with protecting Grogu. Favreau directed from a script he wrote with Noah Kloor and Dave Filoni, who earlier this year was upped to oversee the creative direction of Lucasfilm as president and chief creative officer following Kathleen Kennedy’s departure (he was a George Lucas protégé).
In the film, the Mandalorian is tasked by Sigourney Weaver’s Colonel Ward of the New Republic to rescue Rotta the Hutt, voiced by Jeremy Allen White. Martin Scorsese also voices a memorable, four-armed food stand chef.
The other big headline of the Memorial Day weekend is the runaway horror hit Obsession, directed by Curry Barker of YouTube fame. The film, from Focus Features , is coming in No. 2 in its sophomore outing with a projected $23.9 million for the three-day weekend after enjoying a jaw-dropping 39 percent uptick over its opening gross, according to Monday estimates.
That’s up from Sunday’s already stellar estimate of $22.3 million and a 30 percent uptick. The film’s new four-day projected haul is an estimated $30.4 million for an 11-day domestic total of $60 million against a minuscule production budget south of $1 million. (As with Mando, the official number will be revealed Tuesday.) Blumhouse-Atomic Monster is executive producing.
Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic also continues to defy expectations as Michael crosses the $300 million mark domestically for a global cume north of $700 million.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 also remains in fashion in its fourth outing. The female-led box office hit, from 20th Century and parent studio Disney, celebrated a trifecta of milestones achieved over the holiday weekend, led with clearing an estimated $600 million globally after crossing the $200 million domestically and $400 million overseas.
Amazon MGM Studios’ sleeper family hit The Sheep Detectives followed at No. 5 with an estimated $12.8 million in its third weekend for a pleasing domestic cume of $74.4 million, according to updated Monday estimates.
André Ovredal’s new horror pic Passenger, facing fierce competition from Obsession, opened at No. 6 with an estimated $12.1 million for the four-day holiday. Paramount is releasing the pic, with Walter Hamada producing via 18Hz alongside Gary Dauberman and his Coin Operated banner.
This story was originally published on May 23 at 9:53 a.m.
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