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A U.S. naval blockade threatens to eliminate Iran's seaborne crude oil earnings by mid-December, pushing the country toward a financial reckoning that could inflict far greater hardship on ordinary citizens than on the military operations Washington aims to restrict.
Data from energy intelligence firm Kpler shows that Iran's trackable floating oil inventory outside the U.S. blockade zone has reached zero. Although outstanding payments will continue to settle through the middle of December, crude revenues are projected to dry up shortly thereafter. Tehran had accumulated roughly 135 million barrels of crude in floating storage before conflict erupted in February, providing a buffer that allowed continued sales after American forces restricted new shipments. U.S. Central Command estimates that the naval blockade has already stripped Tehran of at least $25 billion in oil revenue.
Because buyers of Iranian crude typically settle payments one to two months post-delivery, a lag exists between the depletion of offshore stockpiles and the complete cutoff of cash flows. Nevertheless, experts note that losing oil income will not automatically trigger an immediate crisis for the Iranian military. Tehran can choose to protect defense expenditures while paring back civilian programs, letting inflation erode public purchasing power and relying on alternative revenue streams.
Direct oil sales account for approximately 30% of Iran’s official state budget, according to Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, and Miad Maleki, an Iran sanctions and financial expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. When indirect income is included, oil and refined petroleum products make up 50% to 60% of regime revenue, Maleki estimated. At the start of the year, Iran anticipated exporting roughly 1.7 million barrels per day at around $54 per barrel, according to Brew. Although actual export volumes fell short, higher global oil prices initially offered some
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